Planes stuck on the ground, events canceled, sport competitions postponed, factories shut down: the coronavirus is weighing on the world economy, with the unexpected side effect of a fall in Co2 gas emissions in China and around the world. But this positive effect on the environment could only be temporary.
Good news for the planet? China, the world's largest emitter of Co2, saw its emissions collapse by at least a quarter between February 3 and March 1 compared to 2019, according to an estimate by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). Lunar New Year holidays, which fell on January 25, usually mark a decline in emissions followed by a rebound. But this year, in a country shut down, with factories idling or stopping, the consumption of coal-fired power plants which supply industries is struggling to start again. Other regions of the world are now experiencing a similar situation: aviation, which accounts for around 2% of global CO2 emissions, is experiencing a marked decline in traffic. So much so that the sector speaks of an "almost unprecedented" situation since the financial crisis of 2008-2009. Air bookings to Europe collapse by 79%! However, the climate emergency requires a drastic drop in CO2: by 45% in 2030 compared to 2010 according to experts from the United Nations (IPCC) to limit the devastating effects that threaten millions of human lives and ecosystems.
Will it backfire later?
According to experts and researchers, one should not declare victory too quickly. Things should quickly get back to normal after the pandemic disappear. The US Central Bank (Fed) has already cut rates urgently to stimulate the economy, a first since the 2008 crisis. The G7 countries, the richest economies in the world, are ready to take budgetary action. Beijing has an extensive support plan for small and medium-sized businesses, with credit facilities. In 2008-09, the financial crisis was followed by a strong rebound in CO2 emissions because of government stimulus measures. The danger is that the health crisis will divert attention from climate change and other long-term problems, while the climate emergency will require attention over several decades...
Lessons learned
It is believed that there will be positive lessons to be learned from this crisis in the long term, in particular concerning the changes in habit and the reductions in CO2 emissions that they can lead. 80% of the goods are transported in the world by boat. This crisis is also an opportunity for companies to increase teleworking and teleconferencing. This may help break the cultural habit that prevents employees from using these technologies.
The coronavirus epidemic is partly due to the fact that we have lost a healthy balance between humans and nature. This disease, like the SARS, would have originated in the animal world before passing to humans. Greenpeace spokesman said the opportunity to restore this balance should not be missed: "We are, after all, already in a climate emergency".
Stay safe !
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